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Tampa Bay has now scored 30 points in six straight games. In addition, these teams combined for yards of total offense in their Week 12 matchup, the sixth-most in any game this season. SportsLine's model is calling for Mahomes and Brady to combine for almost passing yards, while Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both eclipse the yard receiving mark for Kansas City. As a result, the over has all the value in Super Bowl LV. The model has also made the call against the spread and on the money line, and it has exact player stats that can help you crush your Super Bowl prop bets.
You can only get every pick right here. And what will the exact final score be? Feb 7, at pm ET 3 min read. Bet Now. How teams can copy Bucs in Draft Chris Trapasso 5 min read. Winners and losers from Super Bowl John Breech 17 min read.
Brady's hilariously brilliant plan to win Super Bowl prop John Breech 3 min read. Russ reacts to trade rumors, wants say in roster moves Patrik Walker 4 min read. The Seahawks and Rams meet for the third time, and have split the regular season matchups. Russell Wilson started the year hot, but has thrown just 12 touchdown passes in the last 8 games after a league-leading 28 TD passes after the first 8 games.
We await word on his status for this game, where John Wolford will get his second start if Goff cannot go. Washington won the NFC East at The NFL continues to award bad division winners with home games, something we have seen several times in recent years. So Tampa Bay has to go to Washington, where they are a big favorite. But those big wildcard round home underdogs have occasionally pulled the upset though they have not advanced beyond that.
Tampa Bay has the clear advantage here, most notably on offense. Washington, though, does have a stout defense led by rookie Chase Young. They finished 2nd in net yards per pass allowed, and 4th in points allowed. If they are to pull the upset, it will likely be in a game where the defense harasses Tom Brady and keeps it a lower scoring affair, or creates turnovers and short scoring opportunities.
Our odds likely underestimate Kansas City, because it includes the results of a Week 17 game where Patrick Mahomes and several KC starters did not play. Both 5 seeds are reasonably dangerous wildcard teams, if they can get out of the first weekend. In this post we summarize our NFL playoffs outlook for both the AFC and NFC, with predictions based on our power ratings based computer simulations of the remaining season schedule for each team.
We also list our Super Bowl odds for the favorites, and conclude with a section detailing where our numbers most differ from the current betting markets. For the most current projections, updated daily, check out our NFL projected standings page. We list the 7 projected playoff teams, determined by assigning the division winners sorted by chances to win division for each, and then overall playoff chances, and then the remaining wildcards by percent chance of reaching the postseason.
Some important notes there:. That leaves five teams in the running for four final AFC playoff spots, and all five are at entering the last game. Our projections are based on our power ratings, and an assumption that teams will play similar to how they have played already this season. But if a team rests starters and that shifts the game odds, that would impact the playoff odds.
The prime example in Week 17 is likely to be Pittsburgh against Cleveland, where it has already been announced that Ben Roethlisberger will not play. With the Steelers more likely to rest starters, the Browns are a larger favorite compared to how we would project them if Pittsburgh was going full out.
Using the implied betting win odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, here is the likelihood that each of the five teams finishes in various seeding positions, based on the odds and tiebreaker rules. You can see that the Colts and Dolphins odds take a little hit, while the Browns go up, based on the Browns being a larger favorite against Pittsburgh.
Miami is the only underdog this week, but they do have tiebreaker advantages that give them a chance if others lose. Again, we list the 7 projected playoff teams, determined by assigning the division winners sorted by chances to win division for each, and then overall playoff chances, and then the remaining wildcards by percent chance of reaching the postseason. The last wildcard spots will come down to two of Los Angeles, Chicago or Arizona.
Arizona can still pass the Rams by beating them. Remember, ties are broken within a division first. If Arizona beats the Rams, they would have the division wins tiebreaker at The only way that the Rams and Bears end up with the same record is if the Rams lose to the Cardinals and fall behind Arizona. Meanwhile, Arizona and Chicago did not play in the regular season, but Chicago holds the common games tiebreaker over Arizona if they finish with the same record.
Our projected odds likely overstate Rams chances relative to Arizona. The Dallas Cowboys have come back to have a realistic chance, after a three-game win streak coupled with Washington and the Giants losing last week. Washington still has the advantage here, having the lead on New York and the tiebreaker over Dallas. The Dallas-NY Giants game, though, will determine who would get into the playoffs if Washington loses this week.
The winner would be in position to win the division with a Washington loss. If there is a tie between Dallas and New York, Dallas could also still win the division with a Washington loss as well. Here are the Super Bowl winner odds for all teams still mathematically alive for the playoffs, according to our projections.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a slight favorite for the No. Now, they have fallen to the No. Doing so would require Cleveland to win this week against the Jets, the Steelers to lose to the Colts, and then the Browns to beat the Steelers in Week Baltimore won, but so did Cleveland, Indianapolis, Miami, and Tennessee. Baltimore still has the easiest remaining schedule with the Giants and Bengals to play, while Miami has to play Las Vegas and Buffalo.
Still, Baltimore needs another contender to lose a game also. Right now, not much is separating all three wildcard spots. Just two weeks ago, Minnesota climbed back to , and they were the favorite in the betting markets among a plurality of wildcard options for the final spot Arizona was still our favorite among the group. Since then, Minnesota has lost to Tampa Bay and most recently, lost at home in a key game to Chicago, to drop to a long shot chance to make the postseason.
Chicago, meanwhile, has realistic hopes of catching Arizona for the final wildcard spot. They need to win this week at Jacksonville, and then have Arizona catch an upset to San Francisco, to surpass them entering Week The only team in the NFC East to win last week was Dallas, who had the longest odds and still do to win the division.
But now their chances are a little better. Dallas, though, needs to win out and have Washington lose both its final games. A Washington loss to Carolina, on the other hand, swings everything. If the Rams win, then Los Angeles would own the tiebreaker, and the division would be decided in Week 17, with the Rams able to win the division title if they closed the season with another win.
Here are the Super Bowl winner odds for the ten most likely teams to win it all this year, according to our projections. For the most current projections, check out our NFL projected standings page. Note: The projections in this post have been updated to include the Thursday and Saturday game results in Week If you look at a current playoff standings table on NFL. Baltimore now has as good a chance as Cleveland or Indianapolis, and a much better chance than Miami, because of their remaining schedule Jacksonville, NY Giants, Cincinnati.
Miami may be listed in playoff position, but they really need a win this week, and for at least one of Tennessee, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Baltimore to lose. All of those four teams are favored by at least 5 points this week, with Tennessee and Baltimore favored by double digits. For the second week in a row Pittsburgh lost, and Kansas City now has a substantial lead in the race for the No.
Kansas City, though, can now afford a loss to New Orleans this week and still be in the lead for the top spot. The Raiders game against the Colts was huge for their playoff hopes, and their chances fell by more than half with the loss plus other results.
The loss to the Chargers further took away almost all of their remaining playoff chances. The Raiders are technically still alive for a playoff spot but their chances have cratered over the last two weeks. Arizona had lost three in a row, and Minnesota had won five of the last six games entering Week But the Cardinals won to move to , while Minnesota lost to drop to Prior to last week, we still had Arizona as the favorite, among a plurality of candidates, to get the final wildcard spot.
That optimism, perhaps fueled by the narratives of the direction the two teams appeared to be heading, has largely gone away. That sets up a key NFC North game this week between Minnesota and Chicago, in what could practically, though not officially, be considered an elimination game for the loser. All four NFC East teams are underdogs again this week, so any that can pull off a victory will see their chances improve, especially if the others lose. For the most current projections, check out our NFL Standings projections page.
Most of the contenders for an AFC playoff spot won in Week But not all wins are equal. Since our playoff predictions are based on projecting win odds for every remaining game, a team that wins a game where its perceived chances were lower will make a bigger jump. The biggest gainers in terms of playoff odds were Cleveland and Indianapolis. Cleveland won at Tennessee as an underdog to make a big leap. Indianapolis, meanwhile, won at Houston as a slight favorite.
New England and Buffalo also won games that were closer to a toss-up. Baltimore, Miami, and Las Vegas, meanwhile, won games where they were heavier favorites coming in, which is why their chances went down in a week where most of the contenders won, and explains why Indianapolis jumped Miami for our projected seventh seed for now. However, our projections now have Kansas City as a slight favorite to get the No. If Pittsburgh loses at Buffalo and they are a slight underd0g then Kansas City would hold the tiebreaker if the teams finished with the same conference record, based on common games Kansas City already beat Buffalo.
Basically, it comes down to whether Pittsburgh loses at least one game over the last four, and the tiebreaker could shift. In a weird twist, the Kansas City-New Orleans game may not have as much impact now, since KC could lose that and still win a tiebreaker if Pittsburgh also loses. The favorite in the NFC West shifted for the second week in a row.
In Week 13, Seattle turned around and lost unexpectedly as a big favorite, while the Rams won a division road game at Arizona.