Though this might work out in the short term, any bettor who wants to have long-term success will need to develop a baseball betting strategy. A good strategy will be based upon a few essential elements. Some portions of the strategy will attack the big picture, while others will assess games based upon specific, statistical factors.
Any good baseball handicapper will have a baseball betting strategy based around statistics. In order to truly have success, you must know which statistics to use. Baseball analysis has undergone something of a renaissance in the last twenty years, with new ideas coming about and new stats providing insight. Smart bettors will beef up on sabermetric knowledge, learning to predict future performance based upon the correct factors.
The following are examples of sabermetric statistics that can be useful when forming a baseball betting strategy:. Smart bettors know that FIP is a better way of analyzing pitcher performance and can often provide insights into who is undervalued. Using updated stats like UZR will help in analyzing defense, while wOBA is a much better offensive metric than trusty old batting average.
As a baseball bettor, it is important to look for undervalued assets. Baseball betting, in a way, is like investing on the stock market. You want to find commodities, be it players or teams, that are not being viewed properly by the betting public. By using statistical analysis, it is easy to figure out when players are getting a bit unlucky.
I personally think they are the best in the business, but Baseball-Reference does great work as well. However, many sports bettors that use analytics like myself would agree that Baseball Prospectus and specifically their PECOTA projections are at the bottom of the sabermetrics totem pole.
In March , FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference agreed to standardize the talent level of a replacement-level player; which is the base level for WAR values. As mentioned above, a replacement level player is a freely available minor leaguer or a bench player in the majors.
They had a small difference between their calculations prior to this, but now they both assume a team of only replacement-level players are expected to win However, they still use different methods for estimating offensive, defensive, and pitching value, so their results differ in some cases.
As I explained above, WAR is meant to represent how valuable a player is in terms of wins. For example, Bryce Harper is currently projected to finish the season with 6. This means that if Harper had been injured and missed the whole season, and was replaced by a 0. It is important to remember, though, that WAR is an estimation and not a precise measurement. Had the Nationals somehow traded for Red Sox right-fielder Mookie Betts in this theoretical situation, who has a projected 5.
Despite the 0. Instead, WAR is best used for grouping players:. Instead, WAR can be used to distinguish players as above. Murphy is certainly a valuable player and can be considered an All-Star, but Harper is clearly better. This is where you can appropriately use WAR. Amazingly, a similar example comes from a recent and controversial MVP race. Many baseball fans can recall the huge debate that occurred in between traditionalists and sabermetric followers for who should win the American League MVP award.
There was already tension between the old and new schools of thinking in the baseball world, and this argument intensified it greatly. As someone who is a complete nerd with both analytics and baseball history, it was tough for me to take a side five years ago. Here is how the two performed in both traditional stats…. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
BsR Base Running Runs Above Average : Number of runs above or below average a player has been worth on the bases, based on stolen bases, caught stealing, extra bases taken, outs on the bases, and avoiding double plays.
Def Defensive Runs Above Average : Number of runs above or below average a player has been worth on defense, combining Fielding Runs and the positional adjustment. If you needed a refresher, now you understand how this became such a hot topic. The biggest argument was between the value of winning the Triple Crown Cabrera and having an insane
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