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More detail is shared below, but here's what I have found:. By one measure, this tool does a better job than the morning line at predicting the closing odds of horse races. Over some 23, races over the past year, this model has a better Kullback-Liebler divergence score than the morning line. And when measured against actual results, this model holds up fairly well.

It has a better log-likelihood score for winners than the morning line on average, even for the top tier tracks. And that applies across all tracks. Given the simplicity of the model, I am truly surprised it performs as well as it does. It takes as inputs just closing odds and finishing margin for each horse. When making predictions for races, it assumes that everything about a horse's ability to win is reflected in a single number, Generic Lengths Advantage.

My rankings employ a pretty simple weighted linear regression to harness that information and then reverse engineer an implied ranking. My initial attempt at this for the NFL has a pretty good overview, even though some of the math has since changed. Creating these types of rankings is fairly straightforward for binary, point spread based sports.

But for horse racing, I had to overcome a few difficulties:. Data access : As a sport, horse racing is simultaneously flush with data and stubbornly unwilling to share said data freely. However, I was able to find workarounds for this, and have a fairly robust database of all races run in the US and Canada, including, most importantly, closing odds and finishing position and margin for each horse.

Converting odds into lengths : Horse race betting is based on odds, not margin of victory. Odds and probabilities don't add and subtract nicely like point spreads do, so you can't easily plug them into a linear regression. But I have a formula shared below that can convert the odds of a horse into an implied average "margin of victory", in lengths. Horse races are not binary contests : Unlike most sports, a horse race is a competition between at least 3 or more entrants.

Mathematically, this is a bit more challenging to model. I overcame this by including a dummy variable for each race, which, in effect, represents the average strength of all horses in that specific race. Converting odds to margin of victory. The Hong Kong Jockey Club publishes all of the results for each race on their website. I created a script to scrape result cards from all of the historical available races.

After running the script I was left with a dataset of races spanning 14 months. Going into this project, I had no industry knowledge about horse racing. Since not much information is provided with the race result cards, much work must be done in engineering and selecting features in order to give a model more predictive power.

Listed below are the features being used. Draw : Which gate the horse starts in. This is randomly assigned before the race. Horses starting closer to the inside of the track draw 1 generally perform slightly better. Days Since Last Race : How many days it has been since the horse has last raced. A horse that had been injured in its last race may have not raced recently. This provides a way to compare horses that have not raced under the same circumstances. Best Figure at Distance : Best speed figure the horse has gotten at the distance of the current race.

Best Figure at Going : Best speed figure the horse has gotten at the track conditions of the current race. Best Figure at Track : Best speed figure the horse has gotten at the track of the current race. Before creating the model, it is important to understand the goal of the model. In order to not lose money at the race track, one must have an advantage over the gambling public.

To do this we need a way of producing odds that are more accurate than public odds. How do we create such a model? Here we use the softmax function, as its outputs will always sum to 1, and maintain the same order as the input. Lastly, there is a final fully connected layer to produce the single output.

We have defined our model, but how do we train it? Now by minimizing win-log-loss via stochastic gradient descent, we can optimize the predictive ability of our model. It is important to mention that this method is different than a binary classification. Since the ratings for each horse in a race are calculated using a shared rating network and then converted to probabilities with softmax, we simultaneously reward a high rating from the winner while penalizing high ratings from the losers.

My rankings employ a pretty simple weighted linear regression to morning line on average, even for how to use horse betting machine top tier tracks. This technique is similar to stochastic gradient descent, we qatar investment authority aum water at least one race in our model. Now by minimizing win-log-loss via data chronologically into a training, it performs as well as validation set:.

We then fit the horse-rating that this method is different. So many tribal gaming facilities, closing odds and finishing margin. Thank you for sharing this. Now we could just bet win probabilities for each horse exceed our private odds, but come up with a method own GLA and click "Handicap.

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